Four defeats in the past four meetings, one win in seven since 2018; England are facing up to a Six Nations nemesis on Saturday and seem suitably prepared.
Scotland have enjoyed a bright purple patch in Calcutta Cup contests and have thoroughly deserved these results. They have been slicker, steelier and more streetwise. You sense that England are determined to turn the tide and, with Gregor Townsend’s side depleted by significant injuries, this is a big opportunity for them.
Even so, to end this unwanted streak and build on their win over France, the hosts will need an accomplished performance at Twickenham. Here is how they banish a painful hoodoo.
Allay the influence of Russell
The craft and persistence of Finn Russell’s kicking game has been a common factor in these encounters. Across three of their four most recent Calcutta Cup wins, Scotland have kicked for more metres during the 80 minutes. England were ahead on that metric in 2022, but only just: by 860m to 836m. And back-to-back kick-passes from Russell led to the telling penalty try that year:
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All told, Russell has put boot to ball 64 times for a total of 1,907m in four matches. Even with his array of cross-field strikes, which make negligible distance on their own before reaching their target, he is averaging just shy of 30m per kick. That suggests that a major aim has been to pin back England and prioritise territory.
This pattern of long kicking from Scotland will have figured in Steve Borthwick’s decision to retain Marcus Smith at full-back, and we can expect Ben Earl to drop into the back-field as he did a fortnight ago. However, France were remarkably blinkered with their kicking game. Not once was Smith given a contestable high ball to field, which is baffling.
Ben White and Russell will impart far more variety in the kicking exchanges. If and when they do go long, watch out for the jackalling of Rory Darge and Jamie Ritchie as England return the ball.
Then you have Russell’s passing repertoire, too. In tempering their “hammer” system in favour of a softer drift, England are making it easier for opponents to play to width. This cost them for Ireland’s first try, with James Lowe storming through Alex Mitchell, and they were indebted to France’s fumbles.
While the loss of Sione Tuipulotu deprives Scotland of a midfield focal point, Tom Jordan is a tough and resourceful inside centre and they will still have Huw Jones and Blair Kinghorn carving into the 13 channel. Duhan van der Merwe makes a mockery of the truism “you have to earn the right to go wide”. He often allows attacks to go wide straightaway – without any punchy carries to narrow the defence – because he generates impetus himself.
Joe El-Abd deserves praise for keeping Antoine Dupont relatively quiet, and will clearly have paid similar attention to Russell. Mitigating his influence begins in the tackle area and at the breakdown, as well as by working hard to organise the defence around the ruck to maintain width in the front line. A back row of Tom Curry, Ben Earl and Tom Willis will be charged with disrupting Scotland’s rhythm, while the midfield trio of Fin Smith, Ollie Lawrence and Henry Slade must be decisive and robust in contact.
Stay aware and be accurate
There have been a litany of sloppy slip-ups from England down the years. Two that stick in the memory arrived from restarts. In 2023, with England having just extended their lead to 20-12, Alex Dombrandt fumbled Russell’s kick:
Within three minutes, Ben Curry had missed a sniping White – a defensive error compounding the original one – and Scotland were quickly back in touch.
Twelve months later, Russell went quickly on the back of a George Ford penalty, finding George Martin all alone in his own 22. A knock-on ensued:
England did not concede points directly, yet the calamitous moment encapsulated how Scotland have been quicker of thought as well as deed. Restarts govern the momentum of Test matches. Here, against Ireland, seconds after Cadan Murley had pounced for a 7-0 lead, England invite pressure immediately with Ben Earl’s drop:
They were on the ropes for the ensuing 20 minutes, until Jamison Gibson-Park’s excellent finish broke a dam of scrambling resistance. Conversely, in the second half against France, Tommy Freeman hauled his side back into contention by chasing Fin Smith’s restarts and recovering possession.
Tom Willis, like Billy Vunipola before him, is effective at the underappreciated practice of catching restarts and denting the oncoming chase. England’s clumsiness against Scotland has not been restricted to these scenarios, though.
A quick line-out and a clever bounce-back strike move, using Russell as bait on the openside, brought about White’s try in 2022. In 2024, from a scrum, Slade shot past Huw Jones looking for Russell again. Lawrence bit onto Tuipulotu, who sent Jones up the middle:
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This Rose, England Rugby’s in-house YouTube documentary series, captured Earl addressing his colleagues at half-time of the France match. “I think when we’ve come into these situations before, we’ve seen it as a 40-minute effort,” he said.
“Boys, it’s not that. It’s the first play, then it’s the play after that. And if we feel out of control, someone take a knee and we attack the next thing. Attack this game now play by play. Don’t see this as a 40-minute effort. This is 40 one-minute efforts.”
If that perspective halts England’s brain fades, it is the right approach to take.
Striking a set-piece balance and attacking efficiency
The straight switch between Ollie Chessum and George Martin was a fascinating one, even before the latter was officially withdrawn and replaced by Ted Hill.
The burlier Martin has helped England to stop opposition mauls against Ireland and France, while contributing to a largely sturdy scrum from behind Will Stuart at tighthead prop. But, with Borthwick resisting any urge to field a rangy blindside flanker, the line-out has been rather messy.
Stats Perform recorded 14 successful throws from 15 in Dublin, which does not tell the whole story. England needed to scrap just to retain the ball, never mind launch anything meaningful. In round two, they lost three of 13 throws.
When Chessum arrived from the bench, however, to join caller Maro Itoje with the same back-rowers that started against Ireland – Tom and Ben Curry and Earl – England could finally lean on the line-out as a platform to attack from. Tries for Fin Baxter, via a peel, and for Elliot Daly thanks to a strike off the back of a driving maul, began at line-outs.
The introduction of Jamie George was a factor as well, so Luke Cowan-Dickie will be under scrutiny. But the inclusion of Chessum, even at lock rather than flanker, is a signpost towards the significance of the line-out as a source of possession.
As for the England scrum, it is quite a statement that Borthwick has picked Hill in the number 19 shirt rather than a specialist lock. Hill has made just two senior starts at lock in his career, both for Bath – one against Gloucester in the Premiership this season and another against Exeter Chiefs in the Premiership Cup the previous campaign. The hosts may end up with a lack of scrummaging ballast.
In all four of the latest losses to Scotland, England have returned a poorer average of points per visit to the opposition 22. The tallies are as follows: 0.8 points per visit to Scotland’s 1.2 in 2021, 1.8 to 3.4 in 2022, 2.6 to 4.1 in 2023 and 2-4 in 2024.
In short, Scotland have been far more clinical with field position, which is testament to several things: their support play, their intensity, their ambition, their execution and, of course, the platform their set-piece has given them.
Repeat bench impact
While replacement strategies are ripe for hindsight bias, it always seemed prudent for Borthwick to split the Curry twins after the England bench fell flat against Ireland. The call to replace Willis was proactive and equally impressive was the restraint to keep Mitchell on for 80 minutes. Neither Harry Randall nor Chandler Cunningham-South were chucked in for the sake of it, but the experience of George and Daly proved handy.
Interestingly, the squads of England and Scotland mirror one another in that they are geared towards a dynamic finish. England have Hill and Chandler Cunningham-South on a six-two bench, while Scotland have Sam Skinner, Gregor Brown and Matt Fagerson in reserve as well as dynamo hooker Ewan Ashman.
Again, that lack of a third specialist lock is glaring for England. Hill is clearly covering and Willis has leant himself to the engine room for Saracens this season as well. Cunningham-South, who has a single senior start at lock for London Irish in 2022, is an emergency option. Itoje and Chessum will surely bid to go the distance.
As Borthwick knows by now, his role will be about identifying what needs to be left alone; not just what should be changed.
